from an email, re: 2007-2008 Philippine economy
Most analysts say growth is not trickling down and that growth is higher under GMA than previous presidents but people don't feel it because much of the growth went to the rich and to repairing bank and corporate balance sheets. But as you know, I think growth is not being felt by the people (that government spent so much on "nararamdaman ko" ads is a good indirect proof of this) because growth is much lower than estimated by the NSCB.
*Yes, people don't feel the growth because much of it went improving the government's balance sheet and to corporations and banks which used the higher profits to repair the damage done to their balance sheets by the Asian Financial Crisis.* But given the very high reported growth, there should have been some juice left for most families. Instead, real income fell for all deciles and real expenditures fell for most deciles in the FIES.
But it is not just the household surveys that are not detecting growth that is being reported by the NSCB. The Volume of Production Index (VOPI) from the Monthly Integrated Survey of Selected Industries (MISSI) of the NSO (census) has declined and yet the NSCB is reporting growth in real manufacturing value added. BIR's collection is not reflecting the high growth either. Yes, there's growth (and much higher growth) according to the NSCB but surveys of manufacturing establishments and households say otherwise. *So either all the surveys are wrong or GDP growth rates are over-estimated. * Moreover, the same NSCB's estimates of Gross National Income (GNP adjusted for the worsening of the international terms of trade) shows that after adjusting for taxes, private purchasing power is not growing as fast as NSCB's estimate of personal consumption expenditures.
Expect more "nararamdam ko" ads.
